Resolution

What you are buying

Every market is a contract on Robinhood Chain holding USDG. One YES share plus one NO share is always backed by exactly 1 USDG in that contract. When the market resolves YES, each YES share redeems for 1 USDG and NO for nothing, and the other way round for NO.

If a market resolves invalid, or its creator cancels it before any trade, every YES and every NO share redeems for 0.5 USDG, so a complete pair still returns exactly 1 USDG.

Where the probability comes from

Prices come from the market's own pool, an automated market maker that holds YES and NO shares. The YES price is the NO reserve divided by the sum of both reserves, and the NO price is the rest, so they always add up to 1 USDG. The percentage shown is that price. Nobody sets it by hand.

Buying YES adds USDG to the pool and takes YES shares out, which raises the YES price. Large trades move the price more, and the trade panel shows the average price, fee and resulting probability before you confirm.

Lifecycle

Open: trading is allowed. Trading closed: the cutoff has passed. Awaiting resolution: the resolution time has passed and no answer is proposed. Dispute window: an answer is proposed and can be disputed. Proposed: the dispute window ended and anyone can finalize. Disputed: the arbitrator is deciding. Resolved YES, Resolved NO, Invalid and Cancelled are final.

A proposal closes trading immediately. Redemptions open only once the outcome is final.

Token markets

Graduation markets are answered by the resolver contract reading the Pons V2 factory directly. They settle immediately and nobody can influence the answer except by actually trading the token to graduation.

Volume, market cap, holder and trader markets need history that is too expensive to compute onchain. An authorised reporter computes the exact published definition from indexed chain data, signs a report containing the value and a hash of the data used, and submits it. Every such answer goes through a dispute window.

These metrics can be manipulated by a funded participant, for example by wash trading or creating wallets. Each template states its manipulation risk and the rules cap the easiest abuses, but they cannot prevent them. Read the rules before trading.

Price markets

Price markets use Chainlink data feeds on Robinhood Chain. The price at a time is the last feed round updated at or before that time, proven onchain from the feed's round history, so anyone can submit it. If the feed was stale beyond the market's limit, the market resolves invalid.

Stock prices come from Robinhood stock token feeds such as RHNVDA / USD, not from an exchange's official closing print.

Disputes

During a dispute window anyone can dispute a proposed outcome by posting a bond in USDG. The arbitrator then rules within the arbitration window. If the ruling changes the outcome the bond is returned; if it confirms the proposal the bond goes to the protocol treasury.

If the arbitrator does not rule in time, the market resolves invalid and the bond is returned. If nobody proposes an answer within the resolution timeout, the market also resolves invalid. Settlement can never be blocked forever.

What nobody can do

No one, including the market creator, the contract owner, the guardian or the arbitrator, can change a market's question, rules, deadline, resolver, collateral or fees after creation, move the USDG that backs shares, or redirect anyone's winnings.

The guardian can pause new trading across markets. Pausing never blocks merging pairs back into USDG, disputes, finalization or redemption.